Common patterns and trajectories IDPs crossing borders Anecdotal evidence from countries where crossborder movements of IDPs fleeing conflict and persecution have been reported – across the Middle East, parts of Africa and Central America – indicate various factors that help to determine their decision to leave. These include their proximity or otherwise to a border and their financial resources. Others may be unable or unwilling to cross a border, despite the absence of security or basic services in their own country. “Each time, we tried to return to the house, but we could not stay because of the bombing … We had to move to other cities where the armed forces had agreed not to attack. But the agreement was always broken and we had to move again. There is no safe place in Syria.”176 Syria was the most visible example in 2016 of the connection between human suffering inside a country’s borders and exodus abroad. During six years of civil war, more than half of the country’s pre-war population of 22 million have been displaced within or across its borders (see part 1, Syria spotlight).177 As reported by the 2017 humanitarian needs overview: “All areas of the country, north, south, east and west, are impacted by the continuing conflict, which has grown more violent over the last year, resulting in thousands of deaths and injuries, increased internal displacement, large-scale migration to Europe and beyond, lost livelihoods, mounting humanitarian needs and diminished humanitarian access to many areas.”178 in tandem,183 although increases in the number of refugees lag behind slightly as more people start to leave the country altogether for safety abroad (see figure 2.2). Faced with such levels of violence and chaos, displacement is a survival strategy for people with the means and opportunity to escape.179 Many IDPs have been compelled to move within the country multiple times in search of safety in recent years, because a single move has not protected them from constantly changing battle lines and the breakdown of basic services.180 One study reported families moving anything from two to 25 times.181 Increasingly desperate for a safe haven, many eventually made the now infamously perilous journey abroad as refugees and asylum seekers. Figures for IDPs sheltering inside Syria and refugees leaving point to 2012, and the battle for Homs in particular, as a tipping point in the dynamics, scale and nature of displacement when the number of people began to rise exponentially.182 Figures for the next four years support a World Bank hypothesis that the number of IDPs and refugees tends to increase or decline – 20-year-old Syrian refugee, displaced four times The patterns observed in Syria of people being displaced internally various times only to flee the country altogether when they are unable to find safety can be seen elsewhere. In neighbouring Iraq, a growing percentage of displaced people have also been displaced more than once.184 Protection needs are most severe in governorates with high numbers of IDPs and areas where return movements have been observed. As a last resort, some Iraqis embark on journeys facilitated by smugglers and traffickers in search of safety and a better life further afield. At least 52,000 people sought refuge in Europe in 2015.185 One group of 500 who did so described themselves as an exception, because they had been able to afford to make the journey while most other IDPs could not and were left behind in vulnerable conditions.186 In the NTCA countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, persistent targeted violence including harassment and threats appears to be a primary tipping point that forces people displaced internally various times to eventually cross international borders. Women targeted by gang members said they had moved frequently within their countries before going abroad.187 Two-thirds of female refugees from NTCA said they had tried to find safety elsewhere in their own country before fleeing further afield.188 Across some regions of Africa affected by conflict and violence, a different pattern has been OFF THE GRID: Are today’s IDPs tomorrow’s refugees and migrants? 55