CascadingConsequences of Sinking States 2023 133 experiencing devastating effects of a warming climate. These atoll states are most at risk of their territory becoming completely uninhabitable or sinking under the rising sea. 5 The existence of so-called "sinking states" raises complex and profound questions of international law-questions to which the law currently provides no sufficient answer. For states that are at risk of losing one or more of the traditional elements of statehood, such as a defined territory or permanent population, international law is silent on how or when a state becomes extinct and the consequences of extinction.' For citizens of states at risk of extinction, international law offers limited rights to acquire a new nationality and contains no binding obligations on states to accept them on a permanent basis or otherwise provide protection. In the absence of law, it is unlikely that a new treaty or other binding international legal instrument will emerge to fill the void. States have never been more reluctant to enter into binding agreements, 7 and there appears to be little to no appetite to clarify or strengthen the legal rights of individuals or provide pathways to redress for states or their populations. It is as if we have collectively decided that we have reached the end of history' in international law and that no new hard law can be created. It would be a tragic mistake to believe that due to their unique vulnerability, these four states are alone in facing a perilous future. Indeed, sinking states serve as a metaphor for international law and the whole of humanity. If we fail to meet the urgency of the moment with a radical new vision for our collective security, we risk our own potential demise. In the words of Tuvalu's Foreign Minister Kofe, "We are sinking, but so is everyone else."' This Article addresses the cascading consequences of sinking states. It examines some of the most pressing questions related to statehood and nationality raised by this phenomenon. It goes beyond current scholarship by analyzing future implications of the various proposals currently under consideration and what these implications reveal about some of the foundational paradigms of international law. Part II defines the sinking state. It provides an overview of the projections of global warming and sea level rise and outlines which states are at risk of extinction 5 About Small Island Developing States, U.N. OFF. OF THE HIGH REPRESENTATIVE FOR THE LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, LANDLOCKED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES & SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES, https://perma.cc/AXN9-44ML (last visited Apr. 28, 2022) (noting that "sea level rise pose[s] an existential threat to small island communities, requiring drastic measures such as relocation of populations, and the related challenges this poses"). 6 FREDERIK VON PAEPCKE, STATEHOOD IN TIMES OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE CONCEPT OF STATES 207 (2015). 7 See, e.g., Curtis A. Bradley, Jack Goldsmith & Oona A. Hathaway, The Rise of Nonbinding International Agreements: An Empirical, Comparative, and Normative Analysis, 90 U. CHI. L. REV. (forthcoming 2023) (manuscript at 3) (noting that "international relations are increasingly conducted by nonbinding internationalagreements"); Melissa Durkee, The Pledging World Order, 49 YALE J. INT'L L. 1, 4 (2023) (describing the emergence of "the pledging world order" in which pledges can be either binding or non-binding, legal or non-legal). But see, e.g., David B. Hunter, The Hard Choice for Soft Commitments in the Climate Change Regime, in ADVOCATING SOCIAL CHANGE THROUGH INTERNATIONAL LAW: EXPLORING THE CHOICE BETWEEN HARD AND SOFT INTERNATIONAL LAW 138, 158 (Daniel D. Bradlow & David B. Hunter eds., 2020) (arguing that climate negotiations and the agreement of non-binding standards, such as those adopted in the Paris Agreement, have taken place in the context of a binding agreement, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). 8 9 See generally FRANCIS FUKUYAMA, THE END OF HISTORY AND THE LAST MAN (2006). GUARDIAN, supra note 2. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4321214