1. Introduction The suggestion that the entire populations of low-lying island States could be forced to move to other States due to the effects of rising sea levels is perhaps one of the most striking and well-known examples of the potential human impacts of climate change. Elevation data on low-lying island States is indicative of their vulnerability. The highest elevation point is 2.4 meters for the Maldives, while it is 5 meters for Tuvalu and 10 meters for the Marshall Islands.1 The average altitude is far lower, reportedly about one meter for the Maldives2 and Tuvalu3 and about two meters for other low-lying atoll States.4 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) thus concluded that ‘[s]ea-level rise impacts on the low-lying Pacific Island atoll States of Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau and the Marshall Islands may, at some threshold, pose risks to their sovereignty or existence’.5 According to some estimates, Tuvalu could disappear in the next 50 years,6 and its government has raised the potential for its full submersion as a key concern.7 Likewise, Kiribati has sought assurances for its population in the event that its entire territory is submerged.8 1 See the United States Central Intelligence Agency, 2008 World factbook, available online at: https:// https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html (last accessed 29 May 2011). 2 It is reportedly just over 91.4 cm. P. Barta, ‘Apathy sinks Maldives island’, The Australian, 12 January 2008, available online at: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23038807-23850,00.html (last accessed 25 January 2011). According to the same article, even the artificial island and engineered city of Hulhumale, which is 1.8m high, could be submerged by 2050. 3 M. Windisch, ‘Climate refugees – the hidden cost of climate change’, Green Left Online, 3 December 2008, available online at: http://www.greenleft.org.au/2008/777/40054 (last accessed 25 January 2011). 4 J. Barnett and N. Adger, ‘Climate dangers and atoll countries’, Working Paper, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, October 2001; Permanent Mission of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to the United Nations, New York, ‘National communication regarding the relationship between human rights and the impact of climate change’, submitted to the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, 31 December 2008, available online at: http://www2.ohchr.org/english/issues/climatechange/docs/Republic_of_the_Marshall_Islands.doc (last accessed 25 January 2011). 5 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate change 2007, Fourth assessment report, ‘Report of the international working group II: “Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability”’, 736, available online at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter17.pdf (last accessed 29 May 2011). The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). It was established to provide decision-makers and other stakeholders with an objective source of information about climate change. 6 See, for example, Norwegian Refugee Council, Future floods of refugees: A comment on climate change, conflict, and forced migration, April 2008; A. Robers, ‘Islanders without an island: What will become of Tuvalu’s climate refugees?’, Der Spiegel, No 37, 14 September 2007, available online at: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,505819,00.html (last accessed 25 January 2011); Windisch, note 3 above. 7 Tuvalu National Assessment Report 2003, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) network, available online at: http://www.sidsnet.org/docshare/other/20031230154906_Tuvalu_NAR_2003.pdf (last accessed 25 January 2011). 8 See, for example, K. Marks, ‘Rising tide of global warming threatens Pacific island States’, The Independent (UK), 25 October 2006, available online at: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/risingtide-of-global-warming-threatens-pacific-island-states-421493.html (last accessed 25 January 2011); ‘Kiribati likely doomed by climate change: President’, 6 June 2008, ABC News, available online at: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/06/2266607.htm (last accessed 29 May 2011). 1