low-lying islands,76 and that ‘rapid sea-level rise that inundates islands and coastal settlements is likely to limit adaptation possibilities, with potential options being limited to migration’.77 Furthermore, the IPCC has indicated with a high level of confidence that rises in sea levels are unavoidable even in the longer term.78 According to a recent study, rise in sea levels, changes in rainfall and resulting reductions in the availability of fresh water supplies due to current carbon dioxide emissions are locked in for the next 1000 years.79 It is also projected that island States will suffer from accelerated erosion, increasing salination of arable land, contamination of fresh water sources and changes in the amount of rainfall and climate, resulting in serious shortages of fresh water both for consumption and for agricultural purposes. Extensive destruction of coral reefs, with its ensuing impact on tourism, fishing and protection against major surges is foreseen. Furthermore, ocean warming is likely to have an impact on fisheries. Rising sea levels would impact the vulnerable coastal areas, in particular, where settlements and infrastructure are generally located. Island States would probably face severe shortages of fresh water, severe risks to food security due to the impact on agricultural activities and fishing, as well as the destruction of most, if not all, of its existing infrastructure and settlements. Overall, there will therefore be a major impact on sources of income, such as fishing and tourism, particularly in the case of the Maldives,80 as well as on any foreign investment.81 Although such an impact might not be solely attributable to climate change, the effects of climate change would likely aggravate and be aggravated by existing challenges faced by affected island States.82 Measures to mitigate the intensity of climate change and to adapt to its consequences are critical and could presumably prolong the period during which the territory of the island States will remain at least partially habitable. At least one recent study suggests that the situation may not be as dire as predicted, and that while water levels are rising, there is some evidence that the islands themselves are also growing, as erosion from the coral reefs surrounding the islands is swept onto the mainland, leading to a continual growth.83 While heartening, the science behind such a conclusion is still at an early stage. Failing such a natural solution, manmade efforts may be attempted: the example of the Netherlands shows that adaptation is possible even where territory falls below sea levels, albeit at a cost.84 This 76 IPCC, Climate change 2007, note 5 above, 707. IPCC, Climate change 2007, note 5 above, 733. 78 IPCC, Climate change 2007, note 5 above, 317. A more recent study appears to confirm this, although the amount of the rise that is inevitable is not yet clear as the melting of glaciers and polar ice sheets were not considered. See U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, ‘New study shows climate change largely irreversible’, 26 January 2009, http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090126_climate.html (last accessed 25 January 2011). 79 U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, note 78 above. 80 Although tourism has not been a major source of income for Tuvalu and Kiribati, the possible impact of climate change appears to be generating a particular type of tourism by researchers and journalists, see for example, Mortreux and Barnett, note 11 above, 107-108. 81 See IPCC, Climate change 2007, note 5 above, 689-716; Islands First, note 16 above; Barnett and Adger, note 4 above. 82 See for example Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA), Pacific Islands:Regional assessment No.62, available online at: http://www.unep.org/dewa/giwa/publications/r62.asp (last accessed 25 January 2011); GIWA is a water programme led by the United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP. 83 W. Zuckerman, ‘Shape-shifting islands defy sea-level rise’, New Scientist, 2 June 2010, available online at: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627633.700-shapeshifting-islands-defy-sealevel-rise.html (last accessed 25 January 2011). 84 See for example, C. Woodard, ‘Netherlands battens its ramparts against warming climate’, Christian Science Monitor, 4 September 2001, available online at: 77 10