6    Can’t Stay. Can’t Go. Refused asylum seekers who cannot be returned 2014 data provide a more complete picture of the outcomes for asylum seekers. As at May 2016, of the 25,033 main applicants who applied for asylum in 2014, an estimated 12,563 (50 per cent) were granted asylum, humanitarian protection or discretionary leave, either at initial decision or after appeal; 9,941 (40 per cent) were refused or withdrawn; and 2,529 (10 per cent) were still awaiting confirmation of an initial decision or appeal outcome (Home Office 2016a). Of the 9,941 whose applications were refused or withdrawn, as at May 2016 there had been 2,755 enforced removals (including returns from detention), 882 voluntary departures and 440 assisted voluntary returns. Previous research, including work by the Refugee Council (2012), has listed a number of reasons why people do not return. Many continue to believe that their lives are at risk and that they will face persecution if they return, even if the Home Office believes their fears to be unfounded. In some cases, their concerns may be justified, but they have been unable to put their case effectively because they lacked access to good quality legal advice or representation. They may believe the UK government has made a mistake and, therefore, are preparing a fresh claim for asylum. Another reason – one less debated and understood in public policy discourse – is that the person cannot be returned. of the relationship with the relevant embassy or foreign government and the nature of the process itself. The embassy or foreign government defines how the process operates for their nationals and ultimately makes the decision as to whether or not to issue an ETD in each individual case. Lack of diplomatic ties between the UK and the country of origin and the unwillingness or inability of an embassy or high commission to recognise or redocument their nationals can make it difficult for a refused asylum seeker to obtain a travel document (BID 2016). At the time of the report: An inspection of the emergency travel document process May– September 2013 (Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration 2014), there were 78 different ETD processes in operation. There may also be logistical and practical difficulties associated with lack of direct flight routes or transporting people to countries where airports are not operational. From April 2011 to December 2015, Refugee Action delivered the Choices Assisted Voluntary Return (AVR) service, which provided independent, impartial advice and support to individuals considering returning voluntarily to their home countries. Refugee Action maintained a list of countries to which people could not be returned. As at December 2015, Palestine, Syria and Yemen were all listed as impossible to return people to, due to there being no direct flight route (Refugee Action 2016). 1.1.1 Establishing nationality 1.1 The logistics of return To leave the UK, a refused asylum seeker will need a travel document. The Home Office Country Returns Guide (Home Office 2016b) details the type of travel document required. The Home Office can issue European Union letters (EULs) for certain countries, such as Ethiopia. However, even then, EUL removals to Ethiopia can only be arranged once approved by the Ethiopian authorities and removals must be supported by evidence clearly demonstrating Ethiopian nationality (Home Office 2016b). Many countries do not accept an EUL and will only accept a valid passport or emergency travel document (ETD). The Country Returns Guide details the expected timescale for acquiring an ETD, depending on the type of evidence submitted (original, copy or none). For many countries, including Algeria, Eritrea and Zimbabwe, the returns guide contains the entry “no established timescales” (Home Office 2016b). The efficiency and effectiveness of the ETD application process relies heavily on the strength A number of factors may result in a person not being able to establish their identity to the satisfaction of their embassy so as to obtain new travel documents. According to York (2015), these include: >> Where a person has no national documents or any other form of identity (ID) because they never had any, the documents were destroyed on entering the UK, or they lost their documents while living in the UK. >> Where, because of war, unrest or environmental catastrophe, a person has spent most of their life outside their country of origin. >> Where a person finds that their country of origin has become part of another country and they are unable to establish their nationality. >> Where the Home Office disputes a person’s nationality on the basis of language analysis, alleged inconsistencies in their asylum claims or their own changed story.