The Plight of the Rightless: Mapping and Understanding Statelessness in Tripoli-V1.3 Figure 7-Distribution of stateless in Tripoli A rough comparison of stateless lists provided by Mukhtars and those surveyed in the field reveals that 65% of stateless reported by the Mukhtars have been recaptured by surveyors. This means that, using the mark and recapture Lincoln-Petersen method, the total population of stateless in Tripoli can be estimated at 1,439*100/65=2,214 persons.45 If we consider that Tripoli has 8% of the Lebanese population, and if the proportion of statelessness in Tripoli is the same, then there must be 27,275 stateless persons in Lebanon. This estimated number of stateless individuals can be used to simulate the size of the stateless population in Tripoli in the future. With a birth rate of 15 per thousand and a death rate of 5 per thousand, knowing that 67% of adult stateless individuals are of Lebanese parents, that one third of the stateless population are children of Lebanese parents, and that 30% have migrated from Akkar, an adapted growth function will produce an estimate of 4,574 within 15 years. Simulating a similar curve at the national level, the stateless population across Lebanon is expected to reach 56,131 within 15 years.46 45 N=K*n/k where n is size of population in first trial, k is number captured on first trial, K is number recaptured on second trial, and N is population size. 46 Population x(t) = x × (1 + r) t where r is the rate of growth and t is the number of years. 0 30