Table 3.2: Caseloads to be removed in 2018 unless we receive updated information 278 279 280 281 282 Country Figure Date of latest data update Guatemala 242,000: this is based on an estimate published by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in 1997 for people displaced by the civil war (1960-1996). A 2000 report produced by FUNCEDE, Fundación Arias para la Paz y el Progreso Humano and UN-HABITAT (“El Fenómeno del Desarraigo en Guatemala”) disaggregates the 1997 UNFPA Figures on which IDMC’s 2016 estimate is based: 242,000 IDPs left by the armed conflict in 1997.1 31/12/1996 Armenia 8,400: this is a decaying figure which has not been updated since 2005. Of 8,400 IDPs, 2,600 are from the enclave Artsvashen and have no realistic opportunity of returning to their former place of residence. A further 2,480 are potential IDPs, whose current status and whereabouts are unknown. The remainder is staying in different parts of Armenia and has not managed to find durable solutions. This figure comes from a profiling exercise led by NRC and the armenian State Migration Service in 2004 (IDP Mapping Survey 2002 - 2004).2 31/12/2005 Bangladesh 151,000: this is a camp population figure for the Bihari population, issued by the local NGO Al-Falah. Al-Falah was hired by UNHCR in 2006 to conduct a profiling study of the Urdu-speaking/Biharis living in informal settlements since their postwar displacement in the 1970s. Correspondence between IDMC and Al-Falah in 2016 and 2017 has confirmed that there has not been a similar exercise to update the IDP subpopulation profile.3 30/05/2006 Bangladesh 275,000: this figure corresponds to internal displacement in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, and stem from a 2009 socio-economic baseline survey of the Chittagong Hill Tracts, by the Human Development Research Centre; the displacement figure at the time of the survey came to 275,000 people. Some evidence was provided in March 2017 that this figure has come down, although it could not be verified to a satisfactory standard.4 31/12/2007 Turkey 954,000: this is an uncertain figure based on the most recently available data on displacement in Turkey. It is based on a 2006 study commissioned by the government and carried out by Hacettepe University. The study concluded that between 954,000 and 1.2 million people were internally displaced from 1986 to 2005. The study found that IDPs had fled their homes due to armed conflict between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). More than 30 percent of the persons displaced by violence fled their homes between 1986 and 1990, 60 percent between 1991 and 1995, and the remainder between 1996 and 2005.5 06/12/2006 Disasters: difficulties understanding displacement patterns over time We provide an annual global stock figure for people displaced by conflict and violence based on the best data available as of the end of the year, but as yet we have been unable to do so for people displaced by disasters. In 2016, we began working to address this.283 The lack of information available on displacement associated with specific events over time, time-series data, is a serious limitation to this exercise. In order to present our first estimate of the number of people living in displacement following disasters as of 31 December 2016, we collected as much time-series data as possible for disasters that caused the 50 largest displacements in 2016 and the ten largest each year from 2008 to 2015. This sample consists mainly of hydro-meteorological disasters such as floods and storms. These disasters make up 86 per cent of the sample and tend to predominate among the largest new displacements each year, but they may not cause long-lasting displacement compared to earthquakes. The period of time for which data was collected following each disaster varied considerably (see figure 3.7). INSIDE THE GRID: Overcoming data shortfalls 79