One of the main limitations of working with
flow data is that after an initial report of new
displacement, there is seldom time-series data
that follows up on the evolution of the IDPs’
situation over time. Discussed in greater detail in
the section below, this lack of follow-up is one
of the greatest sources of uncertainty over our
year-end figure of 40.3 million people displaced
by conflict and violence.
Accounting for secondary and repeated displacement is a particular challenge, as these flows
are often recorded simply as “arrivals”. Without
knowing whether they constitute new, secondary
or repeated displacements, we report them as
new. The failure to properly capture the dynamics
of certain situations makes it hard for those
responding, because people who have been
displaced for the third or fourth time are likely
to face different and greater needs and risks than
those who have only been displaced once.
Limited disaggregated data
on IDPs’ profile and location
This year, we obtained data on displacement
associated with conflict disaggregated by sex for
12 out of 56 countries or territories (21 per cent),
and disaggregated by age for 11 countries or
territories (20 per cent). In other countries some
of the data we received was disaggregated in
this way, but these datasets either did not cover
the entire country or the whole year.
Data disaggregated by IDPs’ location and shelter
type is also available in only a fraction of the
countries we monitor. Displacement data classified as either urban or rural was available in
two countries (3.6 per cent), and information
reflecting IDPs’ shelter type was available in 15
countries (26 per cent).
Without information about who is displaced,
where they are located and what kind of shelter
they have found, our picture of internal displacement remains one-dimensional. Simply knowing
the number of IDPs is not enough for effective
programming and policymaking. Those responsible for providing services and protection need
to know who their beneficiaries are to ensure
that assistance is well targeted and addresses
their needs.
Accounting for the end of displacement
Quantifying progress toward durable solutions remains a challenge for several reasons. To start
with, there is very little data on the different settlement options being pursued, and the IASC
framework for durable solutions is an analytical but not an accounting tool.274 There is currently
no agreed method, for example, for measuring progress toward durable local integrations in
Bogotá, Goma or Kiev consistently. The information required to make consistent assessments
is not available either, because data on the necessary indicators is no longer collected or it
was never collected in the first place.
A number of experts and institutions, including the Joint IDP Profiling Service (JIPS), the UN
Refugee Agency (UNHCR), the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the UN
Development Programme (UNDP) are currently working on ways to put the IASC framework
into practice, in order to establish a globally consistent way of accounting for the end of
displacement.275 Without such recognised standards and working with the scant information
available about IDPs’ progress toward achieving durable solutions, we apply a set of decision
rules, documented in the methodological annex, to generate consistent estimates across all
countries and contexts.
The approach is far from ideal, however, because it may overstate the number of people who
have returned, integrated locally or settled elsewhere. Our figures for the three settlement
options should not be considered confirmation that the people in question have achieved a
durable solution, but rather a statement of what our sources have reported.
74
GRID
2017
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