not want to go back.254 A subsequent survey of
Somali Dadaab residents conducted by Medecins
Sans Frontieres (MSF) put the figure even higher,
at 86 per cent.255 Among the reasons for their
reluctance to return in the UNHCR survey, 66
per cent cited fears of insecurity and ten per
cent their inability to access shelter.256 Of those
who did return under the voluntary repatriation
scheme in 2016, the vast majority moved to three
of 12 designated return areas – 50 per cent to
Kismayu, 22 per cent to Baidoa and 19 per cent
to Mogadishu.257
For 25 per cent of the returnees, however,
the three areas are not their place of origin or
previous residence.258 They are also located in
south-central Somalia, which hosts the vast
majority of the country’s IDPs, and there are
concerns that many returnees are simply adding
to their number. High levels of acute malnutrition persist in most settlements of IDPs across
Somalia.259
To complicate matters further, UNHCR considers
much (if not all) of the displacement in Somalia
to be the same people being displaced repeatedly and, as a result, did not update its stock
figure during 2016. Indeed, despite the number
of new displacements and cross-border returns,
UNHCR reported the exact same number of IDPs
(1,106,751) in January, February, March, April,
May, June, July and December 2016.264
It appears clear that Somalia is not in a position
to support sustainable returns on the large scale
already seen from Kenya, and numbers could
increase dramatically if the government in Nairobi
goes ahead with its decision to close the Dadaab
complex in 2017. Unless the Somali government,
the local authorities in Jubaland and international
organisations scale up their relief and reintegration efforts, backed by multi-year funding, the
upshot may be increased internal displacement,
circular movements back into Kenya and more
cross-border movements into Ethiopia.
The likelihood of returnees being forced to move
again in search of basic assistance, services and
sustainable livelihoods is high. Much of Somalia
is suffering the effects of recurrent and severe
drought on pastoral and agricultural livelihoods
and food insecurity, and there are warnings
of impending famine if the situation does not
improve. Returnees are coming back to a country
where around half of the population are in need of
emergency food assistance, and all 12 designated
return areas are affected by food insecurity.260
Former refugees previously registered in Dadaab
are already among an increasing number of
Somalis crossing into Ethiopia.261 PMRN has also
recorded incidents of refugees previously registered in Ethiopia returning to Somalia only to
cross back into their former country of refuge.262
The same has also been reported of Somalis
returning to Dadaab, a phenomenon which has
continued into 2017: 500 refugees arrived in
Kenya’s Dadaab camp in March, 100 of whom
who had previously received UNHCR support to
voluntarily return to Somalia.263
Accounting for returned Somali refugees remains
a challenge since some settle in IDP camps, where
they may not be distinguished from people
who had not crossed an international border.
Returnees who remain in Somalia temporarily
before moving on again to their prior country of
refuge, or another country, are also not accounted
for in the year-end headcount since they have not
remained within the borders of their country.
OFF THE GRID: Are today’s IDPs tomorrow’s refugees and migrants?
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