Key findings
|| The total global number of IDPs has been
roughly twice that of refugees in recent years,
and the gap between estimates for the two
groups has been growing over the last 20 years.
Data on conflict-related displacement shows
that many of the top refugee-producing countries are also home to the highest numbers of
IDPs. Six of the ten countries that produced
the most refugees in 2016 – Afghanistan,
Colombia, DRC, South Sudan, Sudan and Syria
– were also among the ten with the largest
numbers of IDPs.
|| While the return of refugees to their country of
origin is often regarded as a viable and politically preferred solution, returnees may in fact
return to situations of questionable security
and stability and risk becoming displaced again,
this time internally. The return of refugees from
Pakistan to Afghanistan and the announced
returns from the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya
to Somalia are cases in point. Similarly, escalating and violent conflicts such as that in South
Sudan can mean that people become caught
up in a revolving door of circular cross-border
displacement that is difficult to monitor.
|| The phenomenon of IDPs moving onwards
across borders is not systematically measured,
and there is insufficient quantitative and qualitative data and analysis to inform effective
policy and operational responses. Cross-border
displacement by disasters is also not systematically recorded and while estimated to be lower
in numbers, does occur and needs to be better
understood.
50
GRID
2017
|| Available evidence suggests that the push and
pull factors for internal displacement from
areas affected by conflict are similar to those
reported by refugees. Overall, there is currently
not enough research or data to understand the
exact relationship between internal displacement, cross-border movement and return. A
research and policy agenda is needed to:
a) capture more accurately the scale and
proportion of IDPs who cross borders, and
how these vary across different contexts
and crises: this requires the alignment and
interoperability of data collection systems,
with joint collection exercises to monitor
displacement trajectories, including across
borders, over longer time periods;
b) understand the combination of factors that
determine IDPs’ onward and cross-border
flight: understanding how and when people
make such decisions and the different influencing factors is a prerequisite for planning
and preparedness;
c) better understand the circumstances in
which people return to their countries
of origin, and a measure of the risk this
carries for future displacement: monitoring
returnees’ trajectories and gathering data
on the indicators for durable solutions over
time are essential.