New research into displacement risk suggests that displacements associated with disasters will continue at a similar scale to current trends. However, the impacts of climate change on the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and environmental degradation will increase displacement risk further. Increasing complexity In several contexts a clear-cut distinction between conflict and disasters as the immediate causes of displacement is becoming increasingly difficult to uphold. Separating the many underlying and interlinked drivers of the conflict and disasters that result in forced displacement is even more problematic. These complexities have been recognised before, but current data collection and analysis does not reflect them, and quantitative research remains limited. Data from the Horn of Africa suggests that recurring droughts, poor access to basic services and infrastructure, lack of livelihood options and ongoing conflict and insecurity converge in a toxic mix that leaves highly vulnerable and exposed people with no other option but to move. In Ethiopia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Somalia and South Sudan, the confluence of different drivers and causes of new displacement in 2016 was complex enough that distinguishing between final triggers was impossible. Consideration should be given to reporting displacement in such contexts across multiple drivers and causes. Figure 1.2: New displacements by conflict and disasters in 2016, disaggregated by INFORM risk levels in the countries concerned 14.4% - 3.5m 65.1% - 15.7m DISASTERS 24.2m High 0.1% - 26,000 4.5% - 1.1m 15.9% - 3.8m 33.0% - 2.3m Very high Medium Low Very low CONFLICT 6.9m 4.7% - 0.3m 62.3% - 4.3m Source: IDMC, with INFORM data ON THE GRID: Global internal displacement in 2016 11