Using the example above, the 5-year AARC was projected backwards to approximate the prevalence of birth registration at the regional level in 2011; the 11-year AARC applied to the resulting 2011 value was projected backwards to approximate the prevalence of birth registration at the regional level in 2000. This was done to align with the current estimates and to avoid having disparate figures within a region due to more limited data availability for the trend analysis. Projection analysis A set of projection scenarios were developed on the basis of existing trends. The first step for the ‘observed trends continue’ scenario was to calculate a population-weighted average of country projected values (for those countries with trend data) in each region at each year from 2020 until 2030. For countries with a current (2010 or later) estimate but no available trend data, values were projected assuming the average progress of the region. This scenario shows the expected values at global and regional levels if each country were to continue on its observed (or assumed) path of progress. Global-level projected values were calculated as population-weighted averages of the projected prevalence of birth registration in each of the regions. The ‘progress is accelerated’ scenario shows expected values if: (1) those countries that are projected to be on track to achieve universal birth registration by 2030 continue on their observed path of progress, (2) those countries that have a positive AARC (indicating some level of progress) speed up and assume the weighted AARC of those countries in the region that are on track, and (3) those countries that have either a negative average annual rate of change (indicating a decline in the level of birth registration) or have not made any progress (indicating stagnation) catch up and assume the weighted AARC of those countries in the region that have made at least some progress but are not on track. This represents the more ambitious of the two scenarios. Both scenarios account for slowing effects that are to be expected as birth registration levels approach 100 per cent. Map disclaimer Maps are stylized and not to scale. They do not reflect a position by UNICEF on the legal status of any country, territory or area or the delimitation of any frontiers. The dotted line represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties. The final boundary between the Sudan and South Sudan has not yet been determined, and the final status of the Abyei area has not yet been determined. 38 Birth Registration for Every Child by 2030: Are we on track? Footnotes on country data included in maps and figures Figures 3, 7, 11 and 15: Zeroes appearing in these figures do not necessarily mean that there are no unregistered children in these regions but rather that the estimates came to 0 after rounding. Figure 5: Only those countries with comparable data on the level of birth registration among children under age 5 are included in the map. Available data for Argentina, the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Botswana, Indonesia, Liberia, Malawi, Mauritania, Namibia, Thailand and Vanuatu were only collected for the subset of children under age 5 with a birth certificate; therefore, data for these countries are presented in figure 9. Available data for Belarus, Bulgaria, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Montserrat, Oman, Qatar, South Africa, United Arab Emirates and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela refer to the percentage of births registered; therefore, data for these countries are presented in figure 13. Data for Chile refer to children aged 0 to 7 years whose births are registered. Data for the Islamic Republic of Iran refer only to the subset of children under age 5 with an Iranian parent who has a national ID card. Data for the Lao People’s Democratic Republic include children registered in the family book. Data for Morocco refer to the percentage of live births that occurred in the five years preceding the survey that were registered. Data for Pakistan do not include Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. Data for Turkey refer to children registered with the population registry. Data for South Sudan are from an older source (Sudan Household Health Survey 2010) that was implemented in the country prior to the country’s cession from the Sudan; however, data refer to the prevalence of birth registration in the 10 southern states that became South Sudan. Data for Togo include nonusual residents. Figure 9: Only those countries with comparable data on the possession of a birth certificate among children under age 5 are included in the map. Data for Pakistan do not include Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. Data for South Sudan are from an older source (Sudan Household Health Survey 2010) that was implemented in the country prior to the country’s cession from the Sudan; however, data refer to the prevalence of birth registration in the 10 southern states that became South Sudan. Data for Togo include non-usual residents. Figure 13: Only those countries with comparable data on the level of birth registration among children under age 1 are included in the map. Available data for Argentina, the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Botswana, Liberia, Malawi, Mauritania, Namibia and Thailand were only collected for the subset of children under age 1 with a birth certificate; therefore, data for these countries are presented in figure 17.