18
ACQUISITION OF CITIZENSHIP CERTIFICATE IN NEPAL
ESTIMATION AND PROJECTION
The projection of the cumulative population without citizenship certificates reads as follows:
Year
People without
Citizenship certificate in
the previous year
Projected gap in distribution
of citizenship certificates of
that year (Q)
Projected Total number of
people without citizenship
of that year
2015
4,677,053 (O3)
259,317 (Q1)
4,936,369 (S1)
2016
4,936,369 (S1)
296,014 (Q2)
5,232,383 (S2)
2017
5,232,383 (S2)
225,236 (Q3)
5,457,619 (S3)
2018
5,457,619 (S3)
262,214 (Q4)
5,719,834 (S4)
2019
5,719,834 (S4)
302,141 (Q5)
6,021,975 (S5)
2020
6,021,975 (S5)
345,290 (Q6)
6,367,265 (S6)
2021
6,367,265 (S6)
391,959 (Q7)
6,759,224 (S7)
Adding the number of people without citizenship certificates in the previous year with the
yearly gap of citizenship certificate distribution of that year, the study has found that the
cumulative projected number of people without citizenship certificates in the year 2021
is 6.7 million (S7). The number is projected to increase by 1.8 million in only seven years
time. The projection clearly shows that the number of people without citizenship certificates
in Nepal will continue to increase unless the Government of Nepal takes some special
measures to bridge the gap.