spotlight 3 Compounding causes of forced displacement frameworks and a reconfiguration of institutional partnerships in the Sahel. The Sahel region continues to face a complex and deteriorating humanitarian situation, marked by a steady rise in violence that disrupts lives, displaces communities and hinders access to essential services and protection. Civilians are particularly affected, and humanitarian needs have continued to grow. Between January 2020 and April 2025, over 53,400 casualties were recorded in the Central Sahel, over half of them (26,700) in Burkina Faso alone. 92 In 2024, the Central Sahel accounted for more than half of all terrorism-related deaths and nearly one in five of all attacks worldwide. 93 In Mali, the conflict dynamics are shifting, with violence spreading from the north to the centre and more recently reaching the south of the country. As the crisis has intensified and its geographical scope has become broader, coastal countries in the region including Togo and Benin are reporting deadly attacks. 94 Extreme weather events are increasing across the region. Widespread floods in 2024 affected over 1.5 million people in Niger and 733,000 in Mali, destroying homes and infrastructure.95 The floods have exacerbated an already challenging situation; the proportion of the population in the region facing extreme hunger is expected to increase by 20 per cent by June 2025.96 As a result, an estimated 3.7 million people in Mali and Niger are projected to face food insecurity in 2025. The impact will be particularly acute in northern Mali.97 Political developments in the region continue to evolve against a backdrop of persistent insecurity and economic challenges. These factors have contributed to significant governance transitions in recent years, including in Mali (August 2020 and May 2021), Burkina Faso (January and September 2022) and Niger (July 2023). In early 2025, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger formally withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), marking a pivotal moment for regional dynamics. Their departure was followed by steps to operationalize the Alliance of Sahel States, an initiative launched in September 2023, reflecting a shift in regional cooperation Protection environment Project 21, a community-based, regional and interagency protection monitoring system, is maintained by UNHCR and its 30 partners to monitor and analyse protection risks and needs across the region.98 Of the reported protection incidents in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, half of the affected communities reported that armed attacks were the main driver of displacement. Violence against women and girls accounted for a further one in six reported protection incidents. Forced displacement and subsequent movement restrictions due to insecurity have exacerbated protection risks and hindered access to essential services. In communities where the majority of surveyed families reported being subjected to movement restrictions, respondents were twice as likely to have reported feeling insecure, that some locations and activities put women and girls at risk, or that social cohesion is fragile (see figure 8). 92 See Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) data. 93 See the Global Terrorism Index 2025. 94 See April 2025 Monthly Forecast, Security Council Report. 95 See UNHCR West and Central Africa: Flood emergency response, UNHCR. And West and Central Africa: Flooding Situation 2024 Overview, UNOCHA. 96 Population facing extreme hunger refers to those with an Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 3 or above. See Millions in Central Sahel and Nigeria at risk of food cuts as the World Food Programme faces severe funding crisis, World Food Programme (WFP). 97 See Cadre harmonisé d’identification des zones à risque et d’estimation des populations vulnérables au Sahel et en Afrique de l’Ouest (CH3.0) [Harmonized framework for identifying risk areas and estimating vulnerable populations in the Sahel and West Africa (CH3.0)], IPC. 98 See Project 21 for more details. The protection indicators including gender-based violence, education and access to services in this section are based on Project 21 data unless otherwise mentioned. Microdata are accessible at UNHCR Microdata Library: Burkina Faso (household and key informant data), Cameroon (household and key informant data), Chad (household and key informant data), Mali (household and key informant data) and Niger (household and key informant data). 26 UNHCR > GLOBAL TRENDS 2024