spotlight 1 Table 1 | Forecasts for returns to Syria and IDP returns | 2025 Estimated returns to Syria in 2025 Türkiye Lebanon Jordan Egypt Total 700,000 400,000 200,000 25,000 1.5 million65 Refugees’ return intentions The number of Syrian refugees expressing a desire to return home has markedly increased following the fall of the Assad government. The most recent Regional Survey on Syrian Refugees’ Perceptions and Intentions on Return to Syria (RPIS),66 collected data on the return intentions of 3,368 Syrian refugees in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon in January 2025. This survey is the tenth in a series that UNHCR has been carrying out since 2017. Of the respondent refugees, 80 per cent indicated that they hoped to return to Syria one day, higher than all the prior surveys and far higher than the 57 per cent reported in the previous survey in April 2024. While the results differed across the countries surveyed, over a quarter (27 per cent) of refugees reported they intended to return within the next year. This was a marked increase from less than 2 per cent in the previous RPIS. These results reflect the significant political changes in Syria that have created a window of hope among refugees that returning home may now be a possibility. Many of those who expressed an intention to return noted that the fall of the Assad government had increased the likelihood of them returning to Syria. For refugees who highlighted an intention to return in the next 12 months, the main drivers were the improvement of the security situation inside Syria and the desire to reunite with family. Many refugees intending to return also highlighted feeling homesick and wanting to go back to their own country and participate in its reconstruction. Other key drivers for return included push factors in host countries, such as difficulties in accessing work permits or livelihood opportunities, fear of arrest and limited freedom of movement. Almost all refugees (88 per cent) who stated that Estimated IDP returns in 2025 2 million they plan to return in the next 12 months, plan to go back to their place of origin. Alternative locations are most commonly considered by refugees where they have family ties or believe that the alternative location is likely to have more housing options or more job opportunities. Despite increasing numbers of Syrians expressing an intention to return in the next 12 months, the surveys in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon also show that 55 per cent of refugees are not yet intending to return. Syrian refugees and asylum-seekers hosted in countries that do not directly neighbour Syria are also anticipated to be less likely to intend to return.67 In the RPIS, refugees expressed concerns over availability of housing and the status of their property as barriers to their return. Many returning families find their homes damaged or destroyed and face significant obstacles in rebuilding their lives. Safety and security concerns, economic challenges in Syria and the availability of basic services in areas of return (particularly electricity, water, infrastructure, education and healthcare) are among the other concerns cited by refugees. Some voiced concerns about the new authorities and uncertainties regarding how the situation might unfold, indicating a reluctance to return at this time, preferring to wait for Syria to stabilize further. The considerations made by Syrian refugees regarding their prospects for return closely mirror those identified in other research on return intentions. Drawing on empirical studies of refugee returnees in Burundi and Lebanon, IDP returns in Colombia and Iraq, and Syrians who returned in previous years, research identifies a set of recurring themes. Decisions about when, how and whether to return are made at both individual and household levels and are shaped by overlapping 65 Includes also estimates of spontaneous returns from other countries. 66 See Regional Survey on Syrian Refugees’ Perceptions and Intentions on Return to Syria, UNHCR. 67 See Intentions and perspectives of Syrian refugees and asylum-seekers in Europe, UNHCR. 16 UNHCR > GLOBAL TRENDS 2024