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29
In the present case, as has been stated in paragraph 18 of the present judgment, the referring court is
not satisfied that the applicants in the main proceedings are specifically affected by reason of their
personal circumstances by the violence prevailing in the province of Nangarhar. However, it
considers that, in view of the general security situation in that province, the applicants would, solely
on account of their presence, face a real risk of a serious and individual threat as a result of
indiscriminate, conflict-related violence if they were returned to it.
30
However, as has also been recalled in paragraph 17 of the present judgment, pursuant to the caselaw of the Bundesverwaltungsgericht (Federal Administrative Court), before any finding of serious
and individual threat can be made, it is necessary to conduct a quantitative assessment of the ‘risk of
death and injury’, expressed by the ratio between the number of casualties in the relevant area and
the total number of individuals composing the population of that area, which must reach a certain
minimum threshold. If that minimum threshold is not reached, no comprehensive assessment of the
specific circumstances of the case is carried out.
31
It must be held, in that regard, on the one hand, that the criterion adopted by the
Bundesverwaltungsgericht (Federal Administrative Court), according to which a finding of ‘serious
and individual threat’, within the meaning of Article 15(c) of Directive 2011/95, presupposes that
the number of casualties already established, in the light of the population as a whole in the region
concerned, has reached a fixed threshold, may, admittedly, be regarded as relevant for the purposes
of determining whether such a threat exists.
32
If the actual victims of the violence perpetrated by the parties to the conflict against the lives or
persons of civilians in the region concerned constitute a high proportion of the total number of
civilians living in that region, this is likely to lead to the conclusion that there might be further
civilian casualties in that region in the future. Such a finding thus makes it possible to establish the
existence of the serious threat referred to in Article 15(c) of Directive 2011/95.
33
However, it should be noted, on the other hand, that that same finding cannot constitute the only
determining factor for the purposes of finding that a ‘serious and individual threat’ exists, within the
meaning of Article 15(c) of Directive 2011/95. In particular, the absence of such a finding cannot, in
itself, be sufficient to exclude systematically and in all circumstances the existence of a risk of such
a threat, within the meaning of that provision, and, therefore, lead automatically and without
exception to subsidiary protection being ruled out.
34
Such an approach would be at odds, in the first place, with the objectives of Directive 2011/95,
which is intended to confer subsidiary protection on any person requiring such protection. In
particular, as is apparent from recitals 6 and 12 of that directive, the main objective of that directive
is, inter alia, to ensure that Member States apply common criteria for the identification of persons
genuinely in need of international protection by offering them an appropriate status.
35
The systematic application by the competent authorities of a Member State of a single quantitative
criterion, which may be of questionable reliability in view of the specific difficulty of identifying
objective and independent sources of information close to areas of armed conflict, such as a
minimum number of civilian casualties injured or deceased, in order to refuse the grant of subsidiary
protection, is likely to lead national authorities to refuse to grant international protection in breach
of the Member States’ obligation to identify persons genuinely in need of that subsidiary protection.
36
In the second place, such an interpretation would be likely to prompt applicants for international
protection to travel to Member States which do not apply the criterion of a fixed threshold of
casualties already established or which apply a lower threshold in that respect, which could
encourage a practice of forum shopping aimed at circumventing the rules set up by Directive
2011/95. However, it should be recalled that, as stated in recital 13 of that directive, the
approximation of rules on the recognition and content of refugee and subsidiary protection status
should, inter alia, help to ‘limit the secondary movement of applicants for international protection
between Member States’, where such movement is purely caused by differences in legal
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