CHAPTER Chapter 1 Can we predict forced displacement for the next 10 years? A SIGN OF SOLIDARITY It is very difficult to predict global forced displacement, or its impact on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Such predictions typically rely on historical population trends and anticipate future events, which is sometimes impossible. Based on the displacement trajectory in the 1990s and 2000s, few people could have foreseen the rapidly growing number of displaced people we have seen over the last decade. From the mid-1990s until around 2010, the number of displaced people remained relatively stable because even though new displacement continued, at the same time many displaced people eventually repatriated, built permanent homes in their host communities or resettled in third countries. In the aftermath of the early Balkan wars and the Rwandan genocide, for example, global displacement figures remained well below 40 million, and as low as 34 million in 1997, according to estimates. Between 2000 and 2009, the numbers of displaced generally ranged between 37 and 42 million. The last decade, however, brought a major shift. More people sought refuge, but those who had On 10 September 2019, the Government of Rwanda signed an agreement with the African Union (AU) and UNHCR to provide urgent and lifesaving assistance to African refugees and asylum-seekers currently being held in detention centers in Libya. This agreement followed a generous offer from Rwanda to host up to 30,000 vulnerable people at risk and stranded in Libya. Under the memorandum of understanding, UNHCR in partnership with the Government of Rwanda and the AU has established an Emergency Transit Mechanism (ETM), to facilitate the relocation of up to 500 people of concern at any given time from the conflict zones in Libya to safety in Rwanda, while continuing to seek durable solutions options in and outside the country. The ETM in Rwanda complements the Emergency Evacuation Transit Mechanism established in Niger in 2017. been displaced had fewer options for rebuilding their lives. As wars and conflicts dragged on, fewer refugees and internally displaced people were able to return home, countries accepted a limited number of refugees for resettlement and host countries struggled to integrate displaced populations. For instance, only 3.9 million Figure 4 | Refugee returns by decade 3.3 million 9.6 million 15.3 million 3.9 million 4.0 3.5 3.0 Millions 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.5 0 1980 UNHCR > GLOBAL TRENDS 2019 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 11