CHAPTER 1 refugees were able to return to their country of origin between 2010 and 2019. This compares to almost 10 million refugees who returned home during the previous decade and more than 15 million two decades prior (see Figure 4). With more people becoming displaced and fewer being able to return, an increasing number find themselves in protracted and long-lasting displacement situations. The world has clearly shifted from a decade of solutions to a decade of new and protracted displacement. Climate change and natural disasters can exacerbate threats that force people to flee within their country or across international borders. The interplay between climate, conflict, hunger, poverty and persecution creates increasingly complex emergencies. For example, food insecurity may become a major driver of conflicts and displacement. An international alliance of the United Nations, governmental and nongovernmental agencies working to address the root causes of extreme hunger reported that conflict, weather extremes and economic turbulence contributed to several disturbing trends. The group reported that at the end of 2019, 135 million people across 55 countries and territories experienced acute food insecurity.15 In addition, 75 million children had stunted growth and 17 million suffered from wasting. These findings represented the highest level of acute food insecurity and malnutrition documented since the group’s first report in 2017. Eighty per cent of the world’s displaced populations were residing in these 55 countries or territories. 12 coronavirus had just emerged in late 2019, the subsequent pandemic has had, and at the time of this writing continues to have, an unprecedented global social and economic impact, also affecting asylum systems. For instance, the number of asylum applications registered in the European Union in March 2020 dropped by 43 per cent compared to February as asylum systems slowed or came to a halt with countries closing borders or implementing strict border restrictions in response to COVID-19.16 In other parts of the world, refugee registration, an essential protection activity at the core of refugee statistics,17 also dropped significantly despite efforts by some countries to resort to remote registration and documentation. As a result, global refugee and asylum statistics may under-represent the true magnitude of the number of people seeking international protection during the pandemic. This could increase the uncertainty for predicting global forced displacement in the future. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates how unexpected events can affect forced displacement predictions. Although the novel Whatever the predictions are for future global displacement, we must reverse the current trend and massively expand pathways for the forcibly displaced to rebuild their lives ­­– whether in their home countries, in third countries or in their host communities. In 2019, UNHCR and its partners launched the Three-Year Strategy on Resettlement and Complementary Pathways.18 The strategy foresees resettlement of one million refugees and admission of two million refugees through complementary pathways such as family reunification or labour mobility schemes by 2028. For it to succeed, States need to offer more avenues to solutions for refugees in line with the objective of greater shared responsibility set out in the Global Compact on Refugees. 15 Global Report on Food Crises 2020, Global Network against Food Crises, April 2020, at https://www.wfp.org/publications/2020global-report-food-crises 16 See https://easo.europa.eu/news-events/covid-19-asylumapplications-down-march 17 See Chapter 7 for more details on sources and basis of refugee statistics. 18 To work towards increasing the number of resettlement places and admissions, as well as expanding the number of countries offering these programmes, the Three-Year Strategy on Resettlement and Complementary Pathways was launched in 2019 by governments, non-governmental organizations, civil society and UNHCR. The strategy’s target of 60,000 resettlement departures to 29 States in 2019 has been achieved. In 2020, the goal is for 31 countries to resettle up to 70,000 refugees referred by UNHCR. See https:// www.unhcr.org/protection/resettlement/5d15db254/three-yearstrategy-resettlement-complementary-pathways.html UNHCR > GLOBAL TRENDS 2019