The Grimshaw Review of International Affairs Vol. 2, No. 1
its political elites, particularly with the rise of the Arakan Army (AA), which has divided the
state’s political parties into two rough factions: those aligning with military junta and those
advocating for the AA’s vision of self-governance (Hlaing, 2022).
The current post-coup context further compounds these power dynamics. Following the 2021
military seizure of power, Myanmar has descended into civil conflict, in which the Tatmadaw
(military) views domestic threats – be it armed ethnic movements or marginalised groups like
the Rohingya – as existential threats to the regime’s survival (Bi, 2018). It is in this context
that the Rohingya have been securitised and scapegoated, with their persecution serving the
dual-purpose of reinforcing Bamar-Buddhist ethno-nationalism and distracting from broader
public discontent (Passeri, 2021; Bi, 2018). For the military, political survival depends on the
control of urban centres and suppression of dissent, making repression – notwithstanding its
brutality – a rational strategy (Walker, 2024).
Indeed, the centralisation and personalisation of political power, with a strong emphasis on
unity – often tied to religious and societal values – can largely explain this shifting political
dynamic in Rakhine State. In Myanmar, ideas of power are often directly correlated with
wealth, influence, and personal freedom, creating a societal values in which the maintenance
of power is paramount; this is frequently expressed through the metaphor of “holding the
tiger’s tail” (Lubina, 2021). Unity, deeply rooted in Buddhist monastic traditions, is valued,
with self-sacrifice for the collective good regarded as a moral virtue. Conversely, failing to do
so is seen as unethical (McKay, 2019; Lubina, 2021). However, the Rohingya face a unique
challenge, as they are not recognised as indigenous (tainyintha) by the Bamar majority or
other ethnic groups (Lubina, 2021). In this context, the dominance of the Bamar-Buddhist
majority, reluctant to share power with ethnic minorities, has stifled the development of an
inclusive, or even pluralistic, society. Myanmar has thus never truly realised a vision of
“unity in diversity”; religion’s influence has far more frequently exacerbated political
tensions than it has offered meaningful solutions to societal problems (Lubina, 2021).
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