outlined above, it appears unlikely that the entire territory of any State would be fully and finally submerged before the end of the century. In any event, the territory would become completely uninhabitable long before its full disappearance,69 forcing the population and the government, to the extent the latter continued to exist, into exile. The island States concerned are generally already subject to frequent cyclones and tropical storms, and the number and intensity of such extreme events are expected to increase considerably as a consequence of climate change. Tides are also worsening with global warming and rising sea levels. Increased storm surges and more severe flooding are likely.70 In some cases, they are already sufficient to submerge entire island States, albeit temporarily, although this may not necessarily be linked solely to climate change. Thus, much of Tuvalu’s land territory is reportedly regularly inundated by tidal waves,71 and the country has suffered the destruction of homes and the contamination of food supplies.72 The Maldives were also submerged almost fully for several minutes by the tsunami of 2004,73 and tidal surges have since flooded 80 of the islands.74 An earlier IPCC report highlighted that ‘land loss from sea-level rise, especially on atolls (e.g. those in the Pacific and Indian Oceans) and low limestone islands (e.g. those in the Caribbean), is likely to be of a magnitude that would disrupt virtually all economic and social sectors in these countries’.75 The IPCC, thus, warns that the combination of economic and climate change factors could make it difficult to ensure sustainability of habitation on baselines being redrawn. Further, Art. 121 UNCLOS provides that ‘(1) [a]n island is a naturally formed area of land, surrounded by water, which is above water at high tide. (2) [e]xcept as provided for in paragraph 3, the territorial sea, the contiguous zone, the exclusive economic zone and the continental shelf of an island are determined in accordance with the provisions of this Convention applicable to other land territory. (3) [r]ocks which cannot sustain human habitation or economic life of their own shall have no exclusive economic zone or continental shelf.’ No definition is given of rocks, and how they are to be differentiated from islands. Kiribati, the Maldives, the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu are parties to the Convention. 69 IPCC, Climate change 2007, note 5 above, 692, 697. See also ‘Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in small island developing States’, Background Paper for the Expert Meetings on Adaptation for Small Island Developing States, Jamaica, 5-7 February 2007 and Cook Islands, 26-28 February 2007) commissioned by the Secretariat of the UNFCCC with input provided by Dr. Graham Sem. 70 See ‘Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in small island developing States’, note 69 above; also IPCC, Climate change 2007, note 5 above, 692, 697. See also an earlier report, which highlighted the increasing height of storm surges due to the rise in sea levels. IPCC, Climate change 2001, Third assessment report: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, contribution of working group II, Chapter 17, Section 17.2.2, available online at: http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc%5Ftar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/ (last accessed 25 January 2011). 71 See Tuvalu’s ‘National adaptation programme of action for Tuvalu under the auspices of the UNFCC’, May 2007, available online at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/tuv01.pdf (last accessed 24 May 2011). Re rising tides; see Islands First, Issues – Rising sea levels, note 16 above; see also D. Shukman, ‘Tuvalu struggles to hold back tide’, BBC News, Tuvalu, 22 January 2008, available online at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7203313.stm (last accessed 25 January 2011). 72 Make Poverty History, Australian action on climate change: A guide for Garnaut and the government; available online at: http://www.foe.org.au/climate-justice/activities-and-projects/fundingadaptation/MPH%20Climate%20Change%20Report%20final%20web.pdf (last accessed 25 January 2011), 10. The Tuvalu Red Cross reports that in 2007, it evacuated six families on Funafuti atoll, totaling over 100 persons; see Tuvalu Red Cross Society, note 16 above. 73 J. Hamilton, ‘Maldives builds barriers to global warming’, 28 January 2008, National Public Radio, available online at: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18425626 (last accessed 25 January 2011). 74 See Islands First, note 16 above. 75 See IPCC, Climate change 2001, note 70 above, Section 17.2.2. The IPCC notes that ‘in many autonomous small islands the cost of adopting and implementing adaptation options is likely to be prohibitive, and a significant proportion of a country’s economic wealth. Financial resources that are generally not available to island governments would need to come from outside.’ See IPCC, Climate change 2007, note 5 above, 706. 9