Sea Level Rise and Climate Statelessness
of LLISs. At the other end of the spectrum is a faster-than-expected rise in sea
levels and an unfavourable international geopolitical context. This is not a
likeliness assessment; all efforts should be directed towards bolstering local
resilience and building durable solutions that both minimise harm to local
populations and sustain their agency. However, even if all efforts are invested in
the ‘positive’ end of the spectrum of futures, the sheer amount of uncertainty
involved, and the highly political dimension of certain key elements (such as
recognition) highlight the need for the type of approach described by former IKiribati president Anote Tong: ‘I’d rather plan for the worst and hope for the
best’.53 For a state, this may involve complex trade-offs in the allocation of
resources, but in terms of legal research, this could provide an opportunity to
create better legal forecasts, which in turn could help with a state’s allocation of
its resources.
The use of a spectrum to conceptualise possible futures also reflects the
uniqueness of the challenges faced by the different states threatened by climate
change. There can be no single solution based on a ‘one size fits all’ approach.54
Discussing different solutions in the context of various possible futures has the
benefit of allowing reasoning that would not be possible without allowing for
several discussions to occur in parallel.
In keeping with this approach, the current article aims to revisit the assessment
of the law on statelessness outlined in the previous section, this time in the context
of a hypothetical ‘worst-case scenario���. The bases of the analysis do not change,
but the context within which the relevance of the law on statelessness is assessed
does. Such context can be briefly summarised by the premise: ‘what if almost
everything that can go wrong does?’ In practice, this is assumed to mean that the
loss of a LLIS’s entire territory would result in the loss of its statehood earlier than
otherwise expected under the narrative presented in Part III(A) and that a number
of EDPs would find themselves excluded from most legal frameworks
traditionally protecting those on the move. Against this backdrop, what would then
be the added value of the law on statelessness for EDPs from LLISs?
STATELESSNESS IN CONTEXT
A
Too Late?
The importance of statehood cannot be understated when it comes to determining
which protection would be available to EDPs from LLISs:
[W]hat is certain is that the fate of the State of origin is the key to the determination
of the legal status that the displaced population may uphold: the total de-population
of a State leads to its loss of statehood, which in turn results in rendering its
population stateless.55
As discussed in Part III(A), most scholars agree that the loss of an LLIS’s
statehood would happen only some time after it loses its territory, if at all.
According to this narrative, the length of the gap between the displacement of an
53
54
55
Kenneth R Weiss, ‘Before We Drown We May Die of Thirst’ (2015) 526(7575) Nature 624,
626.
This is one of the potential problems with creating a ‘climate refugee’ treaty: see generally
McAdam, ‘Forced Migration’ (n 6) 186–211.
Torres Camprubí (n 12) 203.
297