South Sudan A revolving door of displacement After three years of sustained conflict, more than 1.8 million people were internally displaced in South Sudan as of December 2016, an increase of around 230,000 since November 2015.196 Many report being displaced various times as they flee the shifting violence in search of protection and assistance, and in response to seasonal flooding. The southern Greater Equatoria region has become a significant new area of displacement in the country’s ever expanding and deepening crisis. It alone was hosting more than 414,000 IDPs as of the end of the year.197 More than one in four South Sudanese people are now displaced either inside or beyond the country’s borders, and some have been caught up in circular, crossborder displacement patterns. South Sudan’s refugee population became the largest in Africa in 2016, with more than 1.5 million people estimated to be living in the neighbouring countries of Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan and Uganda.198 Around 760,000 people sought asylum during the year, almost 50 per cent of them under the age of 11.199 It has tended to be women and children who flee, while young men stay behind in an attempt to safeguard their families’ livelihoods. In doing so, they risk being recruited by armed groups or being displaced to avoid that fate. The spread of conflict into Greater Equatoria created new waves of displacement during 2016, with the majority of new refugees from South Sudan fleeing into Uganda. Around 16,000 people did so between 16 and 22 July alone, and Uganda is now the largest host of South Sudanese refugees.200 The movements echo the displacement of people from what was then southern Sudan into Uganda during the civil war of 1983 to 2005. As with displacements into Ethiopia from Jonglei and Upper Nile states, they also continue the pattern seen in the past of IDPs moving to areas where they have ethnic links. Despite the high number of people from Greater Equatoria who became refugees in 2016, between 70 and 80 per cent of the displaced population fled into SPOT LIGHT the bush. Those that did cross the border into Uganda had lived there before.201 The triggers and push factors for people to flee both within and beyond the country’s borders vary, but insecurity is cited as the main reason for displacement. The activities of groups such as the Sudan People’s Liberation Army and Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition, armed ranchers and bandits have heightened tensions and pose a significant threat to civilians. There are repeated reports of rape and forced recruitment, including of children, and the wanton destruction of civilian property. The situation has fuelled speculation about ethnic cleansing among the country’s 64 ethnic groups, and the UN’s special adviser on the prevention of genocide, Adama Dieng, recently reiterated his concern about the potential for such an atrocity in South Sudan.202 Food insecurity is also a major issue, and the situation continues to deteriorate with 4.9 million people, or about 42 per cent of population, estimated to be severely food insecure in early 2017. The figure is projected to increase to 5.5 million by July. These numbers are unprecedented, and farmers face significant challenges in planting to ensure a harvest later in 2017. For others schooling has been a factor. Fifty-two per cent of people moving from Akobo in Jonglei state into Ethiopia in early 2017 identified a lack of education opportunities as their main reason for doing so.203 More than 30 per cent of South Sudan’s schools have come under armed attack at least once.204 The increasing fragmentation of the conflict, shifting frontlines and ethnic segregation make the provision of assistance difficult, and there is a growing need to negotiate access with various groups at the local level. The same factors also make it more dangerous and unpredictable for people to access markets and livelihoods. Traffic on many of the country’s transport arteries, including river routes and the main road to Uganda, are prone to attacks by armed OFF THE GRID: Are today’s IDPs tomorrow’s refugees and migrants? 57