ACQUISITION OF CITIZENSHIP CERTIFICATE IN NEPAL ESTIMATION AND PROJECTION The next step was to calculate the number of citizenship certificate holders, broken down by district. • Data on citizenship certificates distributed in the fiscal year 2010/2011 (from 17 July 2010 to 16 July 2011) per district (F) was obtained from MoHA, with the assumption that all of those who acquired citizenship certificates in 2010/2011 had survived until the data collection for the 2011 census. • MoHA had cumulative data on the total number of citizenship certificates distributed per district between 1952 and 16 July 2010 (G1). However, this information did not take into account the number of deaths among those who had acquired citizenship certificates since 1952. The Model Life Table6 was used to calculate the survival ratio (G2). The maximum survival ratio based on life expectancy in 2010 is 0.903189632.7 As reliable data on life expectancy at the district level was not available, the death rate per geographical region (Mountain, Hill and Terai) was obtained from the 2001 census.8 The maximum survival ratio was used for the more developed districts of Kathmandu, Lalitpur and Morang. For all the other districts in the three different regions, the survival ratio was adjusted using the death rate of the respective regions as per the diagram below: • To estimate the total number of citizenship certificate holders who were alive in each district on 16 July 2010 (G), the cumulative data of citizenship certificate holders in each district from 1952-2010 (G1) was calculated using the survival ratio (G2). Cumulative data on citizenship certificate distribution 1952-2010 (G1) 6. 7. 8. Survival Ratio (G2) Citizenship certificate holders alive before 16 July 2010 (G) Model Life Table for Developing Countries, United Nations Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Population Studies, No. 77, New York (1982). Life expectancy in Nepal for 2010 was projected as 64 years using the Model Life Table As the death rate from 2011 Census has not officially been released at the time of the publication of this report, the death rate of the 2001 Census has been applied. 3