particularly where forced external displacement seems highly probable, as in the case of lowlying island States, early planning is critical. It is encouraging that the text of article 14(f) agreed upon at COP16 in Cancun now creates new funding and recommended that the adaptation measures foreseen in the follow-up agreement to the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)157 should explicitly allow funding and the conclusion of inter-State arrangements in cases where external relocation and measures to prevent statelessness are required. Such funding should be made available online at the earliest opportunity to allow for appropriate planning and preparation.158 7. Conclusion The situation of low-lying island States raises a serious risk of forced, permanent displacement of entire populations and their respective governments abroad, with a considerable risk of large-scale de facto statelessness, which could turn into de jure statelessness should the affected States be considered to have ceased existence. Although such statelessness is likely not to occur for some time, inasmuch as it is possible, the principle that statelessness should be prevented would appear to be applicable. In accordance with this principle, adequate multilateral arrangements should be concluded in a timely manner for States that are at risk of being submerged and rendered uninhabitable. Such arrangements are necessary to ensure that the affected populations find a safe haven and that their rights, including the right to a nationality, will be safeguarded and respected. Such an approach does not necessarily require the granting of temporary protection or arranging for early migration options per se. Nonetheless, early planning and the adoption of preparatory measures, including temporary protection and some limited migration options as outlined above, could be advantageous as they would increase the resilience of the affected populations and ensure that displacement, where inevitable, becomes a positive adaptation response. First steps include the recognition that forcible displacement will be inevitable should the territory of island States become uninhabitable and that the disappearance of low-lying island States gives rise to a risk at least of de facto statelessness. As information gaps persist in a number of areas, further efforts need to be invested to fill such gaps, including a more comprehensive analysis of the island States likely to be affected. Additionally, appropriate adaptation measures should be provided for, as outlined above, including within the UNFCCC process. Consultations with the small island States likely to be affected, their populations, and possible partners should be called for. Kiribati: Integrated Land and Population Development Program on Kiritimati Island (Financed by the Japan Special Fund), November 2006, available online at: http://www.adb.org/Documents/TARs/KIR/39641-KIRTAR.pdf (last accessed 25 January 2011). 157 As called for in the Bali Action Plan UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, Decision 1/CP.13, FCCC/CP/2007/6/Add.1, 14 March 2008, 3-7, under Art. 1(c), Available online at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/cop13/eng/06a01.pdf#page=3 (last accessed 25 January 2011). 158 It should be noted that in addition to low-lying island States, islands such as the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Tokelau may suffer a similar fate as island States described above - the highest elevation for the Cocos Islands and Tokelau is 5 m. See United States Central Intelligence Agency, 2011 World Factbook, available online at: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/cg.html (last accessed 25 May 2011). The question of statehood would, however, not arise, as these islands are territories of Australia and New Zealand respectively and its populations hold the respective citizenships. 23

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