which has been linked with climate change, although other factors may be more dominant.16 On the other hand, in Vanuatu, the relocation of an entire settlement on one of the islands was labelled a climate change adaptation project.17 To the extent that entire populations of States would be displaced, however, specific additional questions could arise linked to potential statelessness. The number of States at risk would evidently affect the number of persons who could potentially be displaced; the population of the above-mentioned States of Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Maldives and the Marshall Islands is, however, less than 600,000.18 This number could be considered small in relation to the total number of persons that could be permanently or temporarily displaced due to flooding, which was estimated by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) at 330 million if global temperatures were to rise by three to four degrees.19 In absolute terms, the challenge would be a considerable one nonetheless and could potentially lead to statelessness for some of the populations affected. This paper will assess the relevance of the principle that statelessness should be prevented in addressing the situation of low-lying island States.20 The paper begins by examining the elements of statehood under public international law. While there is a strong presumption of continuity for established states, the possibility of a total loss of territory for natural reasons, or the total displacement of a population and/or government, is entirely novel, and would the Japan Special Fund)’, November 2006, available online at: http://www.adb.org/Documents/TARs/KIR/39641-KIR-TAR.pdf (last accessed 25 January 2011). 16 See Islands First, Issues – Rising sea levels, available online at http://www.islandsfirst.org/issues/rising_sea_level.html (last accessed 25 January 2011). As noted above, six families consisting of more than 100 persons were reportedly evacuated temporarily by the Tuvalu Red Cross Society in 2007; see Tuvalu Red Cross Society, ‘Joining Forces to Tackle Climate Change’, June 2008, available online at http://www.climatecentre.org/downloads/File/programs/TuvaluCaseStudy%20Joining%20forces%202008%20 2p%20web.pdf (last accessed 25 January 2011). However, as noted by Gemenne and Shen, internal migration from the outer islands to Funafuti, the capital, has been a major pattern in Tuvalu, (Gemenne and Shen, note 11 above, 10). 17 ‘Republic of Vanuatu national adaptation programme for action (NAPA)’, prepared under the auspices of the UNFCCC, available online at http://unfccc.int/national_reports/napa/items/2719.php (last accessed on 25 January 2011), 20. 18 Based on projected population estimates for July 2011 provided by the United States Central Intelligence Agency, 2011 World Factbook, available online at: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/cg.html (last accessed 29 May 2011), the total is 574,852 persons. 19 Human development report 2007/2008: Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world, published for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Summary, 18, available online at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_Summary_English.pdf (last accessed 25 January 2011). This is a worst case scenario inasmuch as current discussions around the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) focus on limiting temperature rise to less than two degrees centigrade above preindustrial levels; see, for example, ‘Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions - Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen’, {SEC(2009) 101} {SEC(2009) 102}, COM/2009/0039 final, 28 January 2009, available online at: http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009DC0039:EN:NOT (last accessed 25 January 2011). Moreover, it should be noted that the estimates vary considerably between sources and are subject to controversy. 20 ‘Climate change’ has been defined in Art. 1 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’, (UNFCCC, 1771 U.N.T.S. 107, opened for signature 9 May 1992, entered into force 24 March 1994, available online at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf (last accessed 25 January 2011). Not all meteorological or environmental change can be attributed to ‘climate change’ as such. 3