Still, there is no definitive listing of States at risk of ‘sinking’. A recent report speaks of up to 40 countries which may be at risk,9 although it would appear that further research is needed on the vulnerability of other island States. Even if these States do not ‘sink’, they could become increasingly inhospitable because of climate change related factors such as sea-water incursion into arable land and freshwater supplies, frequent and extreme weather events and increases in diseases borne by insects, food and water such as malaria, dengue and diarrhoea.10 In most cases, such a risk is likely to arise due to a confluence of economic, social, geological and environmental factors, where climate change may constitute the tipping point. Such factors would be likely to cause extensive displacement regardless. It should be noted that migration and displacement within and from low-lying island States is not a new phenomenon. Such movements have occurred for a variety of reasons and are likely to continue due to a similarly complex mix of factors which may include, but are not limited to, the consequences of climate change.11 In Papua New Guinea, the relocation of inhabitants of the Carteret Islands to mainland Bougainville, was touted as an example of the impact of climate change, although this has been disputed on the grounds that geological and other factors were predominant.12 Already in 2000, residents of the Duke of York Islands (Papua New Guinea) had to be evacuated to higher ground, as did residents of neighbouring atolls.13 In the Maldives, residents of the island of Kandholhudoo had to be relocated to another island following the 2004 tsunami.14 Kiribati has an on-going relocation programme to counter overpopulation.15 Tuvalu reportedly also has experienced internal migration, 9 Care, CIESIN, UNHCR, UNU-EHS, World Bank, In search of shelter: Mapping the effects of climate change on human migration, 2008, available online at: http://www.ehs.unu.edu/file.php?id=621 (last accessed 25 January 2011), 19. 10 N. Mimura et al, ‘Small Islands’ in M.L. Parry et al (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, 692 – 699. 11 See inter alia, Care, CIESIN, UNHCR, UNU-EHS, World Bank, In search of shelter: Mapping the effects of climate change on human migration, note 9 above, 18-19; F. Gemenne and S. Shen, ‘Tuvalu and New Zealand: Case study report’, EACH-FOR Environmental change and forced migration scenarios: Specific targeted project: Scientific support to policies - SSP, 15 February 2009, available online at: http://eachfor.eu/documents/CSR_Tuvalu_090215.pdf (last accessed 25 January 2011); C. Mortreux and J. Barnett, ‘Climate change, migration and adaptation in Funafuti, Tuvalu’ (2009) 19 Global environmental change 105112. 12 See for example, ‘Other factors affecting sea level’, The National (Papua New Guinea), available online at: http://www.thenational.com.pg/?q=node/761 (last accessed on 26 May 2011). This has, however, been contested, see, for example, M. Field, ‘Sinking atolls trigger Papuan evacuation plans’, Agence France Presse, available online at: http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s866600.htm (last accessed 25 January 2011); ‘Kiwi to help islanders abandon sinking island’, Fairfax Media, 1 January 2009, available online at: http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/141044 (last accessed 25 January 2011); See also the case of Lohachara Island in the Bay of Bengal, available online at: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climatechange/disappearing-world-global-warming-claims-tropical-island-429764.html (last accessed 25 January 2011); J. Campbell, ‘Climate-Induced Community Relocation in the Pacific: The Meaning and Importance of Land’, in J. McAdam (ed.), Climate Change and Displacement (Oxford: Hart Publishing, 2010) 57, 70. 13 ‘Evacuation from rising seas planned for Pacific islanders: 1,000 flee as sea begins to swallow up Pacific islands’, The Independent (UK), 29 November 2000, available online at: http://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?id=3585&method=full (last accessed 25 January 2011). 14 C. Toomey, ‘The Maldives: Trouble in Paradise’, The Sunday Times, 1 February 2009, available online at: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article5604464.ece (last accessed 25 January 2011). 15 World Bank/Global Environment Facility, ‘Kiribati - Adaptation program - Pilot implementation phase (KapII), project executive summary’, available online at: http://www-wds.worldbank.org (see Project documents – Kiribati) (last accessed 25 January 2011) and the related ‘Project Appraisal Document’, 70-73; see also ‘Republic of Kiribati: Integrated land and population development program on Kiritimati Island (financed by 2