particularly where forced external displacement seems highly probable, as in the case of lowlying island States, early planning is critical. It is encouraging that the text of article 14(f)
agreed upon at COP16 in Cancun now creates new funding and recommended that the
adaptation measures foreseen in the follow-up agreement to the Kyoto Protocol to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)157 should explicitly allow
funding and the conclusion of inter-State arrangements in cases where external relocation
and measures to prevent statelessness are required. Such funding should be made available
online at the earliest opportunity to allow for appropriate planning and preparation.158
7. Conclusion
The situation of low-lying island States raises a serious risk of forced, permanent
displacement of entire populations and their respective governments abroad, with a
considerable risk of large-scale de facto statelessness, which could turn into de jure
statelessness should the affected States be considered to have ceased existence. Although
such statelessness is likely not to occur for some time, inasmuch as it is possible, the
principle that statelessness should be prevented would appear to be applicable.
In accordance with this principle, adequate multilateral arrangements should be concluded in
a timely manner for States that are at risk of being submerged and rendered uninhabitable.
Such arrangements are necessary to ensure that the affected populations find a safe haven
and that their rights, including the right to a nationality, will be safeguarded and respected.
Such an approach does not necessarily require the granting of temporary protection or
arranging for early migration options per se. Nonetheless, early planning and the adoption of
preparatory measures, including temporary protection and some limited migration options as
outlined above, could be advantageous as they would increase the resilience of the affected
populations and ensure that displacement, where inevitable, becomes a positive adaptation
response.
First steps include the recognition that forcible displacement will be inevitable should the
territory of island States become uninhabitable and that the disappearance of low-lying
island States gives rise to a risk at least of de facto statelessness. As information gaps persist
in a number of areas, further efforts need to be invested to fill such gaps, including a more
comprehensive analysis of the island States likely to be affected. Additionally, appropriate
adaptation measures should be provided for, as outlined above, including within the
UNFCCC process. Consultations with the small island States likely to be affected, their
populations, and possible partners should be called for.
Kiribati: Integrated Land and Population Development Program on Kiritimati Island (Financed by the Japan
Special Fund), November 2006, available online at: http://www.adb.org/Documents/TARs/KIR/39641-KIRTAR.pdf (last accessed 25 January 2011).
157
As called for in the Bali Action Plan UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, Decision 1/CP.13,
FCCC/CP/2007/6/Add.1, 14 March 2008, 3-7, under Art. 1(c), Available online at:
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/cop13/eng/06a01.pdf#page=3 (last accessed 25 January 2011).
158
It should be noted that in addition to low-lying island States, islands such as the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and
Tokelau may suffer a similar fate as island States described above - the highest elevation for the Cocos Islands
and Tokelau is 5 m. See United States Central Intelligence Agency, 2011 World Factbook, available online at:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/cg.html (last accessed 25 May 2011). The
question of statehood would, however, not arise, as these islands are territories of Australia and New Zealand
respectively and its populations hold the respective citizenships.
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