Sea Level Rise and Climate Statelessness
investigate the possible added value of the law on statelessness, particularly the
1954 Convention, instead dismissing it for being ill-adapted to the task and for its
applicability being contingent to the concerned LLIS losing its statehood shortly
after becoming deterritorialised, an unlikely occurrence according to the dominant
narrative. As a result, the assumed lack of relevance of the 1954 Convention rests
upon the idea that it is effectively ‘too little, too late’.
The present article aims to nuance this conclusion and introduce a contextsensitive approach to the relevance of the law on statelessness for EDPs from
LLISs. In doing so, the current analysis is thus not aiming to provide a unique,
better legal forecast but instead, to contribute to the better understanding of the
various possible futures facing LLISs, and the solutions available in each
respective future scenario. More precisely, the present article adopts a ‘worst-case
scenario’ approach to evaluating the relevance of the law on stateless for EDPs
from LLISs. Inherent to this hypothetical worst-case scenario is the assumption
that preferred pre-emptive or palliative solutions such as bilateral or multilateral
agreements could not be enacted, as they rely on the good will of other states, a
currency that cannot be taken for granted, or relied upon in legal terms.
A critical analysis of the arguments brought forward in the current literature
also reveals that the statehood of a LLIS deprived of its territory and population
cannot necessarily be relied upon, warranting the need for alternative solutions.
As statehood would essentially be in the hands of the international community and
rest upon the cumulative weight of what are ultimately political decisions, it may
be premature to take deterritorialised statehood as a given. Were other states to
interpret the boundaries of statehood restrictively, the protection afforded by the
1954 Convention would be triggered, providing a potentially valuable framework
for EDPs to secure a legal status.
Conversely, the added value of the legal framework on the protection of
stateless persons may reside in the comparative situation of EDPs who would find
themselves de facto stateless upon their cross-border migration, due to the
continued existence of their state but ineffectiveness of their nationality. While
afflicted by several shortcomings, the 1954 Convention nevertheless provides an
established framework which could benefit EDPs in their host country.
Furthermore, even for EDPs who would find themselves with an ineffective
nationality, the protection afforded by the 1954 Convention could still provide
valuable guidance for the receiving country. Increased visibility of the
phenomenon of statelessness and positive trends towards ratification and
implementation of the 1954 Convention could also positively benefit EDPs from
LLISs if all other solutions were to fail.
Ultimately, the added value of the 1954 Convention for EDPs would also
depend on the benefits derived from their link with their respective
deterritorialised LLISs. Exactly how much a deterritorialised state could do for its
stranded nationals remains to be seen, but in the absence of precedents or binding
frameworks, it may be useful to adopt a ‘hope for the best, plan for the worst’
approach. Reality is likely to prove much murkier than any neat legal forecast,
which inevitably ends up relying on simplified scenarios. For instance, divided
recognition could mean that the statehood of a deterritorialised LLIS regresses into
the grey purgatory of quasi-states. Alternatively, it cannot be excluded that a LLIS
could continue to exist as a sui generis entity, possessing international legal
personality but falling short of detaining full statehood.
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