Middle East: less displacement, but unceasing conflict The number of new displacements in the Middle East and North Africa decreased by almost 60 per cent in 2016. In a return to 2012 levels, 2.1 million incidents were reported, a downturn that supports a World Bank hypothesis that displacement flows tend to peak 4.1 years following the first large wave of displacement.21 Significantly lower figures were recorded in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, countries that accounted for more than half the global total in 2015.22 The sharp decline reflects a relative stabilisation of the front lines of the conflicts – along with two brief ceasefires in Syria – which translated into less dynamic population movements. Restrictions on freedom of movement also emerged as a common theme in 2016 with people trapped in besieged cities such as Aleppo and Mosul, which is likely to have meant that fewer people were able to flee to safety. The decline in the figures is also explained in part by actors on the ground adjusting the methodology used for data collection, as was the case in both Yemen and Syria. Despite the decline, the three countries still featured among those with most new displacements by conflict in 2016 (see figure 1.6). In Syria, there were at least 824,000 displacements during the year, often with people fleeing at very short notice and leaving their assets and documentation behind. Multiple displacement there has become the norm,23 and persistent and extreme violence and family separation have created a high-risk protection environment for all civilians, with women and children particularly vulnerable (see spotlight, p.17).24 Almost 660,000 new internal displacements were reported in 2016 in neighbouring Iraq, where the pace of the phenomenon over the past three years has been “nearly without precedent”.25 There were nine major military campaigns during the year, including an offensive by United States (US)-backed Iraqi forces to retake Mosul from Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Each resulted in people fleeing for safety. At the same time, more than a million Iraqis are thought to have returned to their homes during the year, some to areas contaminated by unexploded ordnance and many to places where public infrastructure and private housing have been damaged or destroyed (see spotlight, p.19).26 At least 478,000 new internal displacements were reported in Yemen during 2016, linked to two main waves of violence in March and May. The decrease in the number of new displacements compared to 2015 and the relatively stable number of IDPs reported throughout 2016 are potentially misleading and do not reflect the volatile displacement dynamics within Yemen. High return rates were reported during the year, and new displacement figures do not comprehensively capture multiple displacements and backand-forth movements, which remain unquantified and unreported. If these movements were accounted for, the number of displacements in country may have exceeded 750,000.27 At the end of 2016 more than half of the IDPs in Yemen were sheltering in Hajjah, Taiz and Sana’a governorates, around 77 per cent of them living with host families or in rented accommodation.28 Figure 1.6: New displacements by conflict and violence in the Middle East and North Africa, 2009 to 2016 Source: IDMC 16 GRID 2017