is no longer seen as a viable option for those
seeking protection abroad. Asylum acceptance
rates have also dropped sharply and an EU declaration signed in October 2016 has paved the way
for at least 80,000 Afghans who have had their
applications rejected to be returned.243
A major campaign has also been underway in
Pakistan to push Afghan refugees back home.
More than 600,000 registered and undocumented returnees arrived in eastern Afghanistan between July and December 2016. Asylum
space in Pakistan and Iran has been shrinking for
some time, and new refugee registration exercises have not been conducted in either country
since 2007.244
These large-scale returns, whether forced, spontaneous or assisted, have prompted UN agencies
and NGOs to warn that significant secondary
displacement is likely, and the humanitarian
country team for Afghanistan has said this will
create considerable needs. 245 Undocumented
and involuntary returnees are at particular
risk, because they tend not to be monitored or
assisted, but rather fall off humanitarian agencies’
radar soon after returning. As such they are far
less likely to reintegrate into their communities.246
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Afghanistan’s national policy on IDPs is clear
that returnees, including those coming back
from outside the country, should be counted
as internally displaced unless they are able to
settle sustainably in their places of origin.247 So
far, however, there has been no concerted effort
to assess the impact of large scale returns on the
number of IDPs in the country, nor has it been
possible to record the true extent of secondary
displacement more generally.
There has also been a sharp increase in the
number of IDPs in Afghanistan in recent years.
Every province currently either produces or is
hosting IDPs, and the country is already struggling to respond to their protection and assistance needs.248 Addressing those of the huge
influx of returning refugees in the east of the
country and a predicted surge in 2017 in the
number of refused asylum seekers coming back
from Europe will be a major challenge.