ADVISORY COMMISSION ON RAKHINE STATE 9 October 2016, when armed attacks on the Border Guard Police in Maungdaw Township resulted in the loss of life of members of the security forces. The attacks were purportedly carried out by a Muslim armed group called Harakat al-Yaqin (later renamed Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army), which, according to some analysts, has ties to Rakhine Muslim émigrés residing in Saudi Arabia.1 The group overran a security post north of Maungdaw Town, seizing weapons and ammunition. During the subsequent military and police operation, violence and destruction of private property led to a significant number of Muslims fleeing across the border to Bangladesh. Some members of the Rakhine community were also forced to flee. Violence seemed to peak in mid-November, when clashes allegedly left 69 insurgents and 17 security forces dead. 1 ○ The security forces have been accused of serious human rights violations during the operations. This led the Commission to recommend in its interim report that an impartial and independent investigation should be carried out. ○ While military operations were scaled down in the beginning of 2017 – leading many refugees and IDPs to return – a significant risk of renewed violence remains. While the first months after the 9 October attacks were characterized by a strongly securitised response, the situation now urgently requires an integrated and calibrated response - one that combines political, developmental, security and human rights responses to ensure that violence does not escalate and inter-communal tensions are kept under control. If human rights concerns are not properly addressed – and if the population remain politically and economically marginalized – northern Rakhine State may provide fertile ground for radicalization, as local communities may become increasingly vulnerable to recruitment by extremists. If not addressed properly, this may not only undermine prospects for development and inter-communal cohesion, but also the overall security of the state. ○ The situation in northern Rakhine State remains volatile. Muslim militants have allegedly killed a number of Muslim leaders, apparently in an attempt to undermine cooperation with the government. The Arakan Army (AA) also remains a serious threat to stability in parts of the state. Myanmar: A New Muslim Insurgency in Rakhine State, International Crisis Group (ICG), December 2016. FINAL REPORT 15