More needs to be done to fulfil the promise of universal birth registration by 2030 FIGURE 20. Percentage of children under age 5 whose births are registered, observed and projected 87% 83% 75% If progress is accelerated If observed trends continue 63% 61 % Around 2000 Today Around 2008 2025 2030 How to read the projections The figures on this page and the following regional pages show how the prevalence of birth registration has changed over time, in addition to two scenarios that could occur in the future. The projection scenarios build on existing trends. The scenario depicting ‘observed trends continue’ shows expected values if each country were to continue on its observed (or assumed) path of progress. The ‘progress is accelerated’ scenario shows expected values if: (1) those countries that are projected to be on track to achieve universal birth registration by 2030 continue on their observed path of progress, (2) those countries that have a positive average annual rate of change catch up to countries in the region that are on track, and (3) those countries that have either a negative average annual rate of change or have not made any progress catch up to countries in the region that have made at least some progress but are not on track. At the global and regional level, this represents the more ambitious of the two scenarios. Both scenarios account for slowing effects that are to be expected as birth registration levels approach 100 per cent. More detailed notes on the methods of calculation can be found in the technical annex. Unless progress is accelerated, the total number of unregistered children in sub-Saharan Africa will continue to increase and will exceed 100 million by 2030 FIGURE 21. Number of children under age 5 whose births are not registered, observed and projected, by region Prevalence remains at today's levels Observed trends continue Progress is accelerated 111 million 94 million 94 million 94 million 100 million 84 million 51 million 50 million 51 million 21 million 19 million 21 million Today 2025 2030 Today Sub-Saharan Africa 51 million 11 million 6 million 2025 South Asia 2030 2 million 3 million 21 million Today 2025 2030 Rest of the world Note: Figures have been rounded. Assessing progress and looking to 2030 27