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significant portion or all of their territory due to sea level rise by the end of this century. It is likely that these islands will become uninhabitable due to lack of fresh water
before they are completely inundated. They are not literally sinking, but rather at risk
of submergence due to sea level rise." However, the imagery of sinking and sub29
mergence is still an apt description of the unique vulnerability of these states.
Four states are most at risk of becoming completely submerged by sea level
rise as their highest altitudes are between five and ten meters above sea level. They
are Kiribati, the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu.30 These states are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, as they primarily consist of
atolls or are mostly comprised of "reef-derived unconsolidated material."" Their vulnerability is compounded by man-made changes to the natural landscape and locations that may put them at risk for higher-than-average global sea level rise.
Other low-lying islands are at risk of significant submergence. For example,
Vanuatu is at risk of the loss of seventy-five percent of the landmass of certain lowlying islands within its territory with just a one-meter rise in sea level, which may
occur by 2100." While this presents profound challenges for these countries, the risk
of significant territorial loss does not portend the same threat of state extinction that
the loss of an entire territory entails."
https://perma.cc/49RY-JRS4; JENNY GROTE SOUTENBURG, DISAPPEARING ISLAND STATES IN
INTERNATIONAL LAW passim (2015). Additionally, "disappearing states" has been used. E.g., Reed
Koenig, Climate Change's First Casualties: Migration and DisappearingStates, 29 GEO. IMMIGR. L.J.
&
501 passim (2015); Rosemary Rayfuse, InternationalLaw and DisappearingStates, 41 ENV'T POL'Y
L. 281 passim (2011). Although the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has discouraged
the use of the terms "sink" or "disappear" in reference to small island states, this seems to be in service
to the principle that "the legal presumption of continuity of statehood needs to be emphasized," rather
than any recognition of the factual reality. U.N. HIGH COMM'R FOR REFUGEES, SUMMARY OF
DELIBERATIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT (2011), https://perma.cc/483N-D9U4.
28 INT'L LAW ASS'N, LISBON CONFERENCE: FINAL REPORT 23 (2022) [hereinafter ILA LISBON
REPORT] (noting that "[r]ecent studies have found that, for many atoll islands, habitabilitymay be threatened as soon as the middle of the 21st century-which is far sooner than indicated by studies that focus
on the permanent inundation of these islands"); Jane McAdam, "DisappearingStates, " Statelessness
and the Boundaries of International Law 4 (Univ. N.S.W. L. Rsch. Paper No. 2010-2, 2010),
https://perma.cc/8SSY-LFN2.
29 For example, just as low-lying island states arc at risk of losing access to potable water, other
states may be face the risk of losing arable land. See U.N. GAOR, 74th Sess., 10th & 11th mtgs., U.N.
Doc. GA/EF/3519 (Nov. 1, 2002).
30 CAMPRUBI, supra note 4, at 103. Tuvalu has a land area of twenty-six square kilometers and its
maximum height above sea level is five meters. Tuvalu Map, supra note 4. The Marshall Islands have a
land area of 181 square kilometers with a maximum height above sea level of 10 meters. MarshallIslands
Map, supra note 4. The highest point in the Maldives is less than three meters above sea level, the "lowest
highest point . .. in the world." Jennings, supra note 4; Evans, supranote 4. Kiribati has land area of 810
square kilometers and its maximum height above sea level is 81 meters. KiribatiResults Summary 2021,
PAC. CMTY., https://perma.cc/AR5H-4C86 (last visited June 11, 2023).
"
IPCC, SEA LEVEL RISE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR LOW-LYING ISLANDS, COASTS AND
COMMUNITIES: SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL 12 (2019), https://perma.ec/Q9SA-UCZY.
32 Bogdan Aurescu & Nilufer Oral, (Co-Chairs of the Study Group on Sea-Level Rise in Relation
to International Law), Int'l Law Comm'n, 72nd Sess., FirstIssues Paper on Sea-Level Rise in Relation
to International Law, U.N. Doc. A/CN.4/740, para. 216 n. 446 (2020); Charles Di Leva & Sachiko
Morita, Maritime Rights of Coastal States and Climate Change: Should States Adapt to Submerged
Boundaries?8 (The World Bank, Law and Development Working Paper Series No. 5, 2008). Vanuatu is
not at risk of complete disappearance, as its highest point above sea level is 1,877 meters. Vanuatu SPC
Member Map, PAC. CMTY., https://perma.cc/TC4L-MDLC (last visited Apr. 29, 2023).
33 During a meeting of the Sixth Committee, Singapore stated that it "faced an existential threat
from rising sea levels." U.N. GAOR, 76th Sess., 6th Comm., 20th plen. mtg. para. 22, U.N. Doc.
A/C.6/76/SR.20 (Dec. 10, 2021).
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4321214