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of individuals once their state ceases to exist as a factual or legal matter or both. The
following part will examine some of the proposals to address the phenomenon of
sinking states and the cascading consequences of those proposals.
III.
THE CASCADING CONSEQUENCES OF SINKING STATES
Although there is some uncertainty regarding the timing and severity of sea
level rise, the IPCC has concluded that sea level rise is certain to occur and will remain irreversible for hundreds if not thousands of years." From this starting point,
this Article will proceed under the assumption that sinking states will continue to lose
habitable territory and will likely lose their entire territory at some point in the future.
In order to examine the cascading consequences of sinking states, it is necessary to examine some of the proposals for preserving the statehood of sinking states
at risk of extinction in the event of a total loss of territory or permanent population.
These include preserving and protecting existing territory, creating new territory, purchasing territory or having states cede territory, merging or associating with existing
states, or evolving our understanding of a state to include some deterritorialized form.
If it is not possible to preserve statehood per se, some have suggested preserving the
international legal personality of the state, following the historical examples of the
Holy See or the Sovereign Order of Malta. The primary proposals and illustrative
frameworks are outlined below.
Jane McAdam has argued that concerns over state extinction are in some
ways overblown. 39 It might be possible, at least in the near term, for the population to
stay on the island state through climate change adaptation measures that states are
already undertaking. Such measures might include efforts to prevent the sea from
encroaching on the territory or land reclamation that would reinforce or expand existing territory. The preservation of territory, even in a diminished or changed form,
might allow the population to stay in situ and avoid losing two of the traditional defining characteristics of statehood.
Some scholars have suggested that sinking states could create new territory
for themselves through land reclamation or the creation of new artificial islands. Land
reclamation has long been used by states to reinforce territory against the encroachment of sea water. States that are at risk of losing their territory could conceivably
use land reclamation and other adaptation measures to preserve the existence of their
territory. However, engaging in large-scale land reclamation or adaptation measures
'
is incredibly costly.40 Given the low elevation of these states' existing territory and
the projections that the sea will continue to rise over thousands of years, even if states
could afford it or received funding, land reclamation and adaptation may be a time
limited solution.4
38 IPCC, supra note 21, at 50 (noting that "it would take several centuries to millennia for the
global mean sea level to reverse course even under large net negative emissions of carbon dioxide").
39 McAdam, supra note 28, at 2 (arguing that "the focus on loss of territory as the indicator of a
State's disappearance may be misplaced").
40 The Maldives estimated that the cost of protecting "the inhabited Maldivian islands alone would
cost up to $8.8 billion." Permanent Mission of the Republic of Maldives to the U.N., Information and
Examples of State Practice on 'Sea-Level Rise in Relation to InternationalLaw': A Submission by the
Republic of Maldives, at 16 (Dec. 31, 2019), https://perma.cc/W8SZ-XQB5.
41 ILA LISBON REPORT, supra note 28, at 29-30.
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4321214