AUAD v. BULGARIA JUDGMENT 35 such as Amnesty International, or governmental sources, including the United States Department of State. At the same time, it has held that the mere possibility of ill-treatment on account of an unsettled situation in the receiving country does not in itself give rise to a breach of Article 3, and that, where the sources available to it describe a general situation, an applicant’s specific allegations in a particular case require corroboration by other evidence. (e) In cases where an applicant alleges that he or she is a member of a group systematically exposed to a practice of ill-treatment, the protection of Article 3 enters into play when the applicant establishes, where necessary on the basis of the sources mentioned in the previous subparagraph, that there are serious reasons to believe in the existence of the practice in question and his or her membership of the group concerned. (f) With regard to the material date, the existence of the risk must be assessed primarily with reference to those facts which were known or ought to have been known to the Contracting State at the time of expulsion. However, if the applicant has not yet been removed when the Court examines the case, the relevant time will be that of the Court’s examination. Accordingly, while historical facts are of interest in so far as they shed light on the current situation and the way it is likely to develop, the present circumstances are decisive. 100. In paragraphs 140-42 of the same judgment the Court, in response to arguments by certain governments in relation to the standard of proof in such matters, reaffirmed that for a planned expulsion by a Contracting State to be in breach of the Convention, it is sufficient for substantial grounds to have been shown for believing that there is a real risk that the person concerned will be subjected in the receiving country to treatment prohibited by Article 3, even where he or she is regarded as presenting a threat to the Contracting State’s national security. 101. Thus, any considerations in the present case having to do with the question whether the applicant presents a risk to the national security of Bulgaria are irrelevant for the Court’s examination. The salient issue is whether substantial grounds have been shown for believing that there is a real risk that he will face ill-treatment or death if the order for his expulsion is implemented (see Ismoilov and Others v. Russia, no. 2947/06, § 126, 24 April 2008). The Court notes in this connection that the Supreme Administrative Court did not attempt to assess the question of risk, confining itself to the question of the lawfulness of the expulsion order. It is a matter of regret that that court found the applicant’s statement about the risk which he faced if he were to be returned to Lebanon “irrelevant for the ... proceedings” (see paragraph 23 above). Not only does the judgment of the Supreme Administrative Court not assist the Court in the assessment of the risk, such approach cannot be considered compatible with the need for independent and rigorous scrutiny of the substance of the applicant’s