14 ACQUISITION OF CITIZENSHIP CERTIFICATE IN NEPAL ESTIMATION AND PROJECTION Objective This study provides a projection of the potential number of people without citizenship certificates from the year 2015 till the year 2021 METHODOLOGY The methodology for calculating the projection was based on the data acquired in the years 2011, 2012 and 2013, and 2014, and the population growth rate of Nepal, relying on which the number of people without citizenship in the following years were statistically projected based on the 2011 census. The data from the past four years was used to calculate a projection of the number of people who may lack citizenship certificate in the coming years based on the current trend. The study based the projection of individuals receiving citizenship certificate from the year 2015 onwards on the average number of citizenship certificate distributed through regular channels (i.e. certificates issued by District Administration Offices) from 2011 to 2014. The study excluded certificates issued through the 2013 Citizenship Certificate Distribution Camps and Integrated Mobile camps (i.e. 603,094) from this average because these certificates were distributed through a one-time, extraordinary programme. This average is presumed as the projected citizenship certificates to be distributed each year from 2015 to 2021. The average so calculated is 467,887 (P). Thus, it is presumed that 467,887 citizenship certificates will be distributed from the years 2015 to 2021. Year Number of citizenship certificates distributed by DAOs 2011 685,255 2012 220,036 2013 523,336 2014 442,920 Total 1,871,547 Average 467,887 (P) Then the projected annual gap in the distribution of citizenship certificate (Q) was calculated subtracting the average annual distribution of citizenship certificates (P) from the annual projected population who have reached the age of 16 (R) which has been statistically presumed on the basis of the 2011 Census.