Should, the entire territory of a State be permanently submerged, inevitably there could be no
permanent population attached to it or a government in control of it. The loss of all territory has
been cited most frequently as a possible ground for loss of statehood. It appears, however, unlikely
to occur before the end of the century, even with the upwardly revised rates in rising sea-levels
announced by scientists recently.3
A threat to statehood may nonetheless arise far earlier. It is projected that the number and severity of
extreme events such as storms and flooding will increase considerably. Extensive loss of fresh water
and arable land due to contamination and seepage is expected. As well, destruction of the economic
base is additionally expected due to erosion, as well as damage to corals and fishing grounds due to
rising sea levels and global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
thus indicated that “rapid sea-level rise that inundates islands and coastal settlements is likely to limit
adaptation possibilities, with potential options being limited to migration”.4 It has also confirmed
that rising sea-levels are unavoidable.5
Low-lying island States are thus very likely to be entirely uninhabitable long before their full
submersion, causing entire populations and the governments to be externally displaced. Unless
territory could be protected or territory was ceded by another State, the exile of the population and
the government would presumably be permanent. The population and the government would be
entirely dependent on the status the host State would be willing to grant it. The government's
independence could thus also be questioned. The IPCC itself has noted the threat to the sovereignty
of low-lying island States likely to be affected.6
Should statehood cease, the population would be rendered stateless. Disappearance of a State due to
loss of territory or the permanent exile of the population or the government is without precedent.
The international community could agree that the affected States would continue to exist
nonetheless. Even in such a case, however, governments of affected States would face many
constraints in practice,7 and their populations would be likely to find themselves largely in a situation
that would be similar to if not the same as if statehood had ceased. The population could thus be
considered de facto stateless.8
To the extent that statelessness is foreseeable, efforts should focus on preventing it from arising. The
principle of prevention of statelessness is a general one recognized in international law as a corollary
to the right to a nationality. Both have been iterated in numerous international and regional human
rights instruments.9 As well, specific instruments address prevention and reduction of statelessness,
including inter alia the 1961 Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness (hereafter the 1961 Convention).10
In addition, the General Assembly in 1996 entrusted UNHCR with a global mandate to engage in
preventing and reducing statelessness as well as to protect stateless persons.11
To prevent statelessness in the context of low-lying island States, one option would be that territory
elsewhere would be ceded to the affected State to ensure its continued existence. If other States
agreed that this was the same State, statelessness would not arise. Union with another State would be
another option. In such a case, the 1961 Convention and the Draft Articles on the Nationality of Natural
Persons in Relation to Succession of States provide for specific safeguards to prevent statelessness.12
Otherwise, the acquisition of the nationality of another State would need to be foreseen. As existing
instruments do not provide specific guidance for such a case, situation-specific arrangements would
be required.
2